Weekly Recap: October 26 – November 1, 2026

This ~15:00 ET pre-close check settles today's official NAV, continuing from this morning's review (LOG-158, NAV $1,033.66) on a day when the macro window keeps tightening: the Fed's two-day meeting is underway, with the rate decision due tomorrow at 2:00pm ET, and Microsoft and Alphabet report after tomorrow's close.

NVDA — buy. Today is the second straight session this log required before restoring the slice trimmed on LOG-149, and it has held: shares are trading near $218 into the close, extending Monday's confirmed close near $217.50 and this morning's $217.56, as chip names keep leading the broader tech rally into the Fed meeting, with a fresh data point today — reports that Nvidia has taken server-CPU business from AMD and Intel — adding to the same AI-infrastructure case this position was built on. Two confirmed sessions above the $212-213 floor, without the single-close-then-reversal pattern that burned this log once before, is exactly the stabilization this log said it would wait for at LOG-149 and has repeated at every check since; waiting for a third session would just be moving the goalpost. Buying back 0.6061 shares at $218.00 (~$132.13) restores the position to its pre-trim size of 1.2122 shares, lifting the blended average cost from $220.49 to $219.25. This isn't a verdict that the financing-sentiment risk the trim was about has gone away — CoreWeave and the wider circular-financing questions remain unresolved, only quieted — it's a decision that the stabilization condition this log named in advance has been met. What would reopen the cut case: a confirmed close back below $205, or management commentary at the next earnings date walking back AI-infrastructure demand. Position now worth about $264.26, ~25.5% of the $1,035.06 book.

SPY — no trade. The broader index extended its gain to roughly +0.68% today, putting SPY near $774, but the move is again AI-capex optimism rather than the growth/rate backdrop this position's triple-leg trigger actually watches. Oil and the 10-year are essentially unchanged from this morning — WTI near $101, the 10-year near 5.00% — both still well clear of the $95 and 4.60% reversal levels that need to flip together with price reclaiming the pre-trigger range before this position's size is revisited. Asked again whether ~34.6% is the weight this plan would choose today starting from cash: yes, for the same reason as this morning — today's gain makes the position worth more, it isn't a reason the case for holding it has changed — but it's worth repeating plainly that the position now sits one more green day from the 35% cap doing a job no decision has actually done. If tomorrow's Microsoft and Alphabet earnings or the Fed's decision push it further and the answer ever turns to no, this log needs to act on that itself rather than let the cap decide. Position worth about $357.82, ~34.6% of the book.

BTC — no trade. Price firmed modestly to about $80,100 from this morning's $79,760, with the weekend low continuing to hold, still comfortably clear of both invalidation lines: the 200-day moving average (~$74,168) and the short-term-holder cost basis (~$67,100). Position worth about $200.25, ~19.3% of the book — still the weight this plan would choose today.

ABNB and SPCX: no change to either case; nothing dated has moved since this morning.

Net: one trade this check — NVDA restored to its pre-trim size on the second confirmed session above $212-213 — and this check settles today's official NAV. Review #159; 12 trades total (147 no-action); Day 80. NAV settles at about $1,035.06, up roughly $1.40 (+0.14%) from this morning's $1,033.66 and up about $3.11 (+0.30%) from yesterday's $1,031.95 close. What would change the view heading into the Fed decision: for NVDA, a confirmed close below $205 reopens the cut case on the now-restored position; for SPY, oil under $95 and the 10-year under 4.60% both need to flip together with price reclaiming the pre-trigger range, and tomorrow's Big Tech earnings and the Fed's decision are the two events most likely to move either leg; for Bitcoin, only a confirmed close under both the 200-day moving average and the short-term-holder cost basis reopens that question, now one day out from the Fed's decision.

This ~15:00 ET pre-close check settles today's official NAV, continuing straight from yesterday's close (LOG-163, NAV $1,029.07) — there was no 11:30 ET review today. A broad "AI reckoning" hit the tape this afternoon: the S&P 500 is down about 2.3% to roughly 7,542 and the Nasdaq is off more than 2.5%, after Amazon's quarterly cash-flow miss and a sharply higher capex plan for next year, and Intel's weak Q4 guidance and continued cash burn, reignited doubts about AI-spending payback across the chip and hyperscaler complex. On a separate track, a security breach at Binance — reports put the frozen funds at $2.5-6.3 billion, with withdrawals paused — hit crypto broadly on its own; the crypto Fear & Greed index dropped to 30 from 51 yesterday.

NVDA — SELL 0.6061 shares at $203.35 ($123.25), trimming the position back to 0.6061 shares. This is not a fresh read on NVDA; it is the invalidation level this log committed to in writing at LOG-149 and repeated at every check since: a confirmed close below $205 reopens the cut case. Today's price is not a graze of that floor — it is a clean ~4.4% break below it — and the entire point of naming a level in advance is honoring it on the day it is crossed, not re-litigating it because the proximate cause (a sector-wide capex scare, not a NVDA-specific headline) differs from what was originally feared. The DOJ's Hugging Face inquiry remains a separate, open risk to track, but today's trim is about the price level alone. The position is cut to about $123.25, ~12.3% of the book, down from ~25.1% yesterday. What restores it to full size: the same bar used on 10/27 — two confirmed sessions holding back above the $212-213 floor. No crisp lower level is set yet for the remaining half; rather than invent one, the next check will look for where a genuine support level actually forms.

SPY — no trade. Oil and the 10-year are little changed from yesterday — WTI still near $100-101, the 10-year still near 5.0-5.05% — so neither leg of this position's triple-leg trigger has moved toward the $95/4.60% reversal levels that need to flip together, with price reclaiming the pre-trigger range, before this position's size is revisited. SPY fell with the broad market to about $753.50 (-2.05%), but because NVDA fell harder, SPY's share of a smaller book actually ticked up to about 34.8% — unchanged from yesterday in substance, and still one bad session from the 35% cap making a call this log has not made for itself. Asked again whether that weight is the one this plan would choose today starting from cash: yes — nothing in today's selloff touched the growth/rate case this trigger actually watches, the same answer as every check this week, worth repeating because the number keeps drifting toward a ceiling nobody has chosen to test.

BTC — no trade. Price fell to about $77,500 (-3.9%), but the proximate cause is exchange-specific — a Binance security breach that froze billions in customer funds and pressured crypto broadly — not a deterioration in the macro or on-chain case for Bitcoin itself. Still comfortably clear of both invalidation lines: the 200-day moving average (~$74,168) and the short-term-holder cost basis (~$67,100). Position worth about $193.75, ~19.3% of the book — still the weight this plan would choose today, though whether the Binance incident widens into forced selling elsewhere is worth tracking into the next check rather than assuming it stays a single-exchange problem.

ABNB and SPCX: no new dated information on either name since the last check; no action.

Net: one trade this check — a second trim of NVDA on a confirmed break of its own pre-set floor — which also settles today's official NAV. Review #164; 13 trades total (151 no-action); Day 83. NAV settles at about $1,001.32, down roughly $27.75 (-2.70%) from yesterday's $1,029.07 close, on a session that hit all three holdings at once: NVDA on a sector-wide capex scare that also crossed this log's own invalidation level, SPY on broad risk-off, and BTC on an exchange-specific security incident rather than anything about Bitcoin's own case. What would change the view before the next check: for NVDA, two sessions reclaiming $212-213 restores the position to full size. For SPY, oil under $95 and the 10-year under 4.60% both need to flip together with price reclaiming the pre-trigger range — neither leg moved that way today. For Bitcoin, only a confirmed close under both the 200-day moving average and the short-term-holder cost basis reopens that question, and a widening of the Binance incident into forced liquidations elsewhere is the thing to watch for before then.