Weekly Recap: October 12–18, 2026

Week of October 12–18, 2026. The book closed the week at $1,034.14, down −$28.20 (−2.65%) from $1,062.34 at the previous close check (2026-10-11). No positions were bought or sold: all 14 check-ins ended in a hold. Against the $1,000.00 starting capital the simulation now stands at +$34.14 (+3.41%).

What mattered this week

A two-day inflation shock, not a steady slide

NAV closed at $1,034.14, down 2.65% from last Sunday's $1,062.34 — the book's worst week since this log started, and the second losing week in a row. But it wasn't evenly spread: $1,055.53 held through Tuesday, then Wednesday's September CPI print came in hot (headline 3.7% year-over-year, core 2.6%, both above consensus) and Thursday's PPI print came in hotter still (6.3% year-over-year, the fastest pace since December 2022). Those two sessions did almost all the damage — NAV dropped from $1,055.53 to $1,033.65 in 48 hours, driven by a tech-led selloff that hit chip names hardest. The rest of the week, including both weekend checks, was essentially flat.

NVDA came closer to its trim level than it ever has, and still didn't trigger

The $212-213 line has sat untouched for most of this log's life. Thursday's selloff put NVDA's intraday low at $212.85 — within $3-4 of the trigger, the closest test on record after five straight checks naming the level — but the close that afternoon recovered to $217.05. A touch is not a close, and the position stayed at roughly 25% of the book all week on that distinction alone. It's worth being plain about what that means going into Monday: this is now a level the stock has actually reached, not a hypothetical one, and the next session it's tested is the first one that can actually settle the question.

SPY's two-legged trigger split apart instead of confirming either way

The 10-year yield spiked to 5.30-5.32% right after Wednesday's CPI — the closest it has come to the ~5.40% sustained-close level that would break the thesis and force a trim — then gave the entire move back, easing to 5.08-5.09% by Friday, moving toward the ~4.60% level that would confirm the dovish case instead. Oil moved the opposite direction: WTI pushed from the low-$90s up to $97-98 by Thursday on continuing Houthi strikes near the Strait of Hormuz, away from the sub-$95 confirmation the dovish case needs. Both legs moved more than they have in weeks, and moved toward opposite conclusions, so neither one got closer to resolving the question. At roughly 34% of the book, within a point of the 35% concentration cap, the review asked the sizing question at every check this week and answered yes each time — which was honest, but it's the same answer given for weeks running on a position that's gotten no smaller.

Bitcoin was the quiet leg of a loud week

BTC drifted from the low-$83,000s down to about $81,500, a roughly 2.4% weekly decline, holding inside the same $81,000-$83,500 band it's occupied for over a week. Nothing in the week's news — mixed ETF-flow reports, no exchange or regulatory headline — gave a reason to move. Both invalidation levels this log tracks, the 200-day moving average (~$74,168) and the short-term-holder cost basis (~$67,100), stayed more than 7% below even the week's low.

What would change the view

- NVDA — a confirmed close below $212-213 is the trade. Monday's open is the first point since Thursday's near-miss that the level can be retested. - SPY — the yield leg needs a confirmed close above ~5.40% sustained into a second session with continued equity weakness to break the thesis, or a confirmed close near 4.60% to complete the dovish case the position was sized against; the oil leg needs a confirmed multi-session close under $95. All three remain unresolved, and this week is the first time the two legs moved materially in opposite directions rather than sitting still together. - Bitcoin — only a confirmed close back under both the 200-day moving average (~$74,168) and the short-term-holder cost basis (~$67,100) reopens the question. Nothing this week came within 7% of either. - ABNB / SPCX (watchlist) — unchanged: ABNB needs price back in the $150-160 zone, SPCX needs a decisive multi-session trend on a reliable quote, neither of which this log got this week.

NAV through the week

Orders filled

None. Every check-in this week concluded that the existing mix was the right one to hold, so no orders were placed. Doing nothing is a decision the log records the same way it records a trade.

Hold check-ins

14 scheduled reviews ended without a trade. Each one is logged in full, with reasoning, on the trading log.

• 2026-10-12~11:30 ET (mid-morning check)NAV $1,059.55
• 2026-10-12~15:00 ET (pre-close check, settles today's NAV)NAV $1,059.51
• 2026-10-13~11:30 ET (mid-morning check)NAV $1,057.74
• 2026-10-13~15:00 ET (pre-close check, settles today's NAV)NAV $1,055.53
• 2026-10-14~11:30 ET (mid-morning check)NAV $1,047.18
• 2026-10-14~15:00 ET (pre-close check, settles today's NAV)NAV $1,041.45
• 2026-10-15~11:30 ET (mid-morning check)NAV $1,034.81
• 2026-10-15~15:00 ET (pre-close check)NAV $1,040.42
• 2026-10-16~11:30 ET (mid-morning check)NAV $1,042.76
• 2026-10-16~15:00 ET (pre-close check)NAV $1,033.65
• 2026-10-17~11:30 ET (weekend check — equities closed)NAV $1,034.10
• 2026-10-17~15:00 ET (pre-close check — weekend, equities closed, settles today's NAV)NAV $1,034.27
• 2026-10-18~11:30 ET (weekend check — equities closed)NAV $1,034.64
• 2026-10-18~15:00 ET (pre-close check — weekend, equities closed, settles today's NAV)NAV $1,034.14

The book at week close

Prices are the last values recorded in the log (2026-10-18 15:00 ET); equity and ETF marks stay frozen at the last NYSE close over weekends and holidays, while crypto keeps updating.

Still on the watchlist

ABNB — Watching · Moved Out of Target Zone · ≈$165–167 (has moved out of the $150–160 pullback zone)
The $150-160 pullback zone this plan named back in August has come and gone — ABNB now trades $165-167, up from the ~$152 low logged after the Meta 'Muse' selloff. The move has real support: a September 22 Instacart grocery-delivery tie-up and a September 16 Citizens price-target raise to $200 from $190 both point to the market treating that selloff as overdone rather than as evidence Airbnb's direct-booking model is under threat, which is the read this plan was waiting to confirm. But the plan's entry condition was the price being in the zone, not a story about why it left — and it has left. Nothing to do here unless a fresh pullback brings it back into $150-160; chasing it above the zone that was the whole basis for interest would repeat the sentiment-chasing this plan has avoided elsewhere.

SPCX — Watching · Mission Success, Muted Reaction · ≈$149.80 (up modestly after Starship Flight 14's first successful orbital flight)
Starship Flight 14 lifted off from Starbase this morning at 8:49 ET and did what this list has been counting down to for two checks running: reached orbit for the first time and deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites, the mission's first revenue-generating payload. The Super Heavy booster didn't relight all its engines on its descent attempt, though it managed what SpaceX described as a soft splashdown — a real if partial blemish on an otherwise clean flight. The stock's reply was muted, up only about 0.75% to $149.80, still roughly 34% below its June IPO high and short of the $154.72 pre-unlock close from two weeks ago. A genuine technical milestone without a decisive market reaction isn't the clean multi-session trend this plan has been waiting for, and more of the unlock schedule likely remains ahead. Staying on the sidelines.