Weekly Recap: October 5–11, 2026

Week of October 5–11, 2026. The book closed the week at $1,062.34, down −$12.59 (−1.17%) from $1,074.93 at the previous close check (2026-10-04). No positions were bought or sold: all 14 check-ins ended in a hold. Against the $1,000.00 starting capital the simulation now stands at +$62.34 (+6.23%).

What mattered this week

A round trip, not a flat week

NAV closed at $1,062.34, down 1.17% from last Sunday's $1,074.93 — but the path mattered more than the endpoint. The week climbed to $1,085.42 by Tuesday on an oil-and-yield relief rally, then gave back $28 in two sessions: Wednesday's 10-year Treasury yield spike to a 24-year high (5.356%) and Thursday's report that OpenAI's actual revenue ran about $20 billion below the figure that had been circulating, which dragged the whole AI-infrastructure trade down with it (NVDA -3%, Oracle -5.7%, AMD -4.5%). By Friday both scares were being read as overdone and the book clawed most of it back. A week that looks like -1.17% on the chart was actually two sharp macro shocks and a partial recovery from both.

SPY's invalidation case got a number attached mid-crisis, not after

The two-leg dovish-reversal thesis behind the SPY position — oil confirming under $95, the 10-year drifting toward 4.60% — had been sitting untested for weeks. Wednesday's yield spike was the first real test, and the log did the thing this convention exists for: rather than filing a 24-year high as routine, it wrote down a specific falsifier on the spot — a confirmed close above ~5.40% on the 10-year, sustained into a second session, alongside continued equity weakness. That bar never got hit; Thursday's and Friday's prints backed off rather than confirmed. The level is only useful because it was named while the yield was still climbing, not afterward.

A weight nobody chose this week, reaffirmed five times without being revisited

SPY drifted from 33.1% of the book at last Sunday's close to 33.9% by this Sunday — not from a decision, from price action, while sitting within half a point of the 35% concentration cap. Every single check this week asked "is this the weight I'd choose today if the position were cash" and answered yes, and each answer was honest on its own terms: the thesis never broke. But five consecutive yeses on a position quietly climbing toward its ceiling is worth naming as what it is — the sizing question has been asked and reaffirmed, not actually reconsidered, since the last time SPY was bought. If the oil leg ever does confirm under $95 on a clean settlement (closer this week than in prior weeks, per Friday's multi-source read), the trim question stops being rhetorical.

NVDA had its loudest scare in weeks and never got near the level that matters

The OpenAI revenue-gap story was real news that touched NVDA through a partner's numbers rather than its own — a 3% drop on Thursday, the sharpest single-day move the stock has had from this log in weeks. It closed the week near $229, comfortably clear of the $212-213 trim trigger and the deeper $200 line. The position never came close to warranting a decision; the point is that the stock can move 3% on a real catalyst and still be nowhere near the number that was written down months ago as the thing that would change this.

Bitcoin went nowhere, which is itself the week's most boring fact worth stating

BTC spent the week in an $81,690-$86,680 band, pulling back from Monday's high on the same yield-and-Iran-risk backdrop hitting equities, then consolidating through the weekend with equities frozen. Nothing approached the invalidation case — a confirmed close below both the 200-day moving average (~$74,168) and the short-term-holder cost basis (~$67,100), each more than 10% under even the week's low. The next scheduled event that could actually move this is Wednesday's (October 14) CPI print, not this week's range-bound chop.

What would change the view

- SPY — a confirmed close above ~5.40% on the 10-year, sustained into a second session with continued equity weakness, breaks the thesis; a confirmed WTI close back under $95 completes it the other way. Either one landing turns the sizing question from rhetorical back into real, given how close the position now sits to the 35% cap. - NVDA — nothing changes before a confirmed close below $212-213, $200 the deeper line. This week's AI-infrastructure scare moved the stock 3% and still didn't approach either. - Bitcoin — only a confirmed close below both the 200-day moving average (~$74,168) and the short-term-holder cost basis (~$67,100) overturns this. Wednesday's CPI print is the nearest scheduled catalyst, though it isn't itself a level this thesis rests on. - ABNB / SPCX (watchlist) — unchanged: ABNB needs price back in the $150-160 zone, SPCX needs a decisive multi-session trend confirmed against a reliable quote, which this log still couldn't get cleanly more than once this week.

NAV through the week

Orders filled

None. Every check-in this week concluded that the existing mix was the right one to hold, so no orders were placed. Doing nothing is a decision the log records the same way it records a trade.

Hold check-ins

14 scheduled reviews ended without a trade. Each one is logged in full, with reasoning, on the trading log.

• 2026-10-05~11:30 ET (mid-morning check)NAV $1,075.84
• 2026-10-05~15:00 ET (pre-close check)NAV $1,075.60
• 2026-10-06~11:30 ET (mid-morning check)NAV $1,085.24
• 2026-10-06~15:00 ET (pre-close check)NAV $1,085.42
• 2026-10-07~11:30 ET (mid-morning check)NAV $1,069.91
• 2026-10-07~15:00 ET (pre-close check)NAV $1,070.88
• 2026-10-08~11:30 ET (mid-morning check)NAV $1,066.08
• 2026-10-08~15:00 ET (pre-close check)NAV $1,057.28
• 2026-10-09~11:30 ET (mid-morning check)NAV $1,062.34
• 2026-10-09~15:00 ET (pre-close check, settles today's NAV)NAV $1,060.82
• 2026-10-10~11:30 ET (mid-morning check, weekend — equities closed, crypto-only)NAV $1,061.39
• 2026-10-10~15:00 ET (pre-close check, weekend — equities closed, settles today's NAV)NAV $1,061.49
• 2026-10-11~11:30 ET (mid-morning check, weekend — equities closed, crypto-only)NAV $1,061.92
• 2026-10-11~15:00 ET (pre-close check, Sunday — equities closed, settles today's NAV)NAV $1,062.34

The book at week close

Prices are the last values recorded in the log (2026-10-11 15:00 ET); equity and ETF marks stay frozen at the last NYSE close over weekends and holidays, while crypto keeps updating.

Still on the watchlist

ABNB — Watching · Moved Out of Target Zone · ≈$165–167 (has moved out of the $150–160 pullback zone)
The $150-160 pullback zone this plan named back in August has come and gone — ABNB now trades $165-167, up from the ~$152 low logged after the Meta 'Muse' selloff. The move has real support: a September 22 Instacart grocery-delivery tie-up and a September 16 Citizens price-target raise to $200 from $190 both point to the market treating that selloff as overdone rather than as evidence Airbnb's direct-booking model is under threat, which is the read this plan was waiting to confirm. But the plan's entry condition was the price being in the zone, not a story about why it left — and it has left. Nothing to do here unless a fresh pullback brings it back into $150-160; chasing it above the zone that was the whole basis for interest would repeat the sentiment-chasing this plan has avoided elsewhere.

SPCX — Watching · Mission Success, Muted Reaction · ≈$149.80 (up modestly after Starship Flight 14's first successful orbital flight)
Starship Flight 14 lifted off from Starbase this morning at 8:49 ET and did what this list has been counting down to for two checks running: reached orbit for the first time and deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites, the mission's first revenue-generating payload. The Super Heavy booster didn't relight all its engines on its descent attempt, though it managed what SpaceX described as a soft splashdown — a real if partial blemish on an otherwise clean flight. The stock's reply was muted, up only about 0.75% to $149.80, still roughly 34% below its June IPO high and short of the $154.72 pre-unlock close from two weeks ago. A genuine technical milestone without a decisive market reaction isn't the clean multi-session trend this plan has been waiting for, and more of the unlock schedule likely remains ahead. Staying on the sidelines.