Weekly Recap: September 28 – October 4, 2026

Week of September 28 – October 4, 2026. The book closed the week at $1,074.93, up +$19.56 (+1.85%) from $1,055.37 at the previous close check (2026-09-27). No positions were bought or sold: all 14 check-ins ended in a hold. Against the $1,000.00 starting capital the simulation now stands at +$74.93 (+7.49%).

What mattered this week

A compound trigger finally got one leg confirmed — and the other moved the wrong way first

SPY's trim case has needed two things together for weeks: oil under $95 and the 10-year Treasury yield reversing toward 4.60%. This week gave the oil leg its cleanest run yet — WTI broke below $95 on Monday as Saudi Arabia restored flow through its East-West pipeline and stayed there through Friday's close, six straight sessions, settling near $87.80. The yield leg did the opposite before it did anything useful: it pushed to 5.34% intraday Wednesday, the highest print since 2002, part of a global bond selloff with nothing to do with this book's thesis. Friday's September payrolls miss — 29,000 jobs against a roughly 90,000 consensus, unemployment to 4.2%, two months of prior revisions cut by a combined 60,000 — pulled it back to 5.16%, still about 56 basis points from the mark. One leg is six sessions deep; the other retreated from a spike rather than drifted toward the level. SPY closed the week at 33.1% of the book, below the 35% cap, and every check this week repeated the same answer when asked whether that weight is one the log would choose today: yes, because it exists specifically to catch this reversal, and this is the closest the reversal has come to happening.

NVDA kept generating news that didn't touch the actual question

A $150 billion buyback increase (total authorization now $235 billion, the largest announced by any US company), the Hugging Face acquisition going from rumored to confirmed, and reporting that Anthropic and xAI compute deals could bring up to $84.5 billion in Nvidia spending through 2029 — all bullish, all genuinely new, and none of it within reach of the $212-213 level that is the only thing that would change the position. The stock closed the week at a record $238.15. Worth saying plainly: a week this loud about one holding can create pressure to do something, and the honest answer stayed "no reason to," because the decision point was never about the news — it was always about the price, and the price moved further from the trigger, not closer.

Bitcoin's one real move came from Friday's jobs number, not from crypto itself

BTC had sat in an $83,000-$84,500 band for over a week before Friday's soft payrolls print broke it to the upside — a roughly 3% jump to $86,680 that pushed the position from 19.8% toward 20.2% of the book, followed by a leveraged long liquidation wave (~$433.6 million over 24 hours) that pulled it back into the mid-$84,000s by the weekend. None of that chop approached the actual invalidation case — a confirmed close below both the 200-day moving average (~$74,168) and the short-term-holder cost basis (~$67,100), more than 10% under even the weekend low. The honest read is that this week's gain leaned on one macro surprise rather than on anything crypto-specific, and the next scheduled event that could move the view either way is the October 27-28 FOMC meeting, not this week's chop.

ABNB chopped exactly the way the tightened entry bar was built to filter

The watchlist's $150-160 re-entry zone got touched and lost three separate times this week — in Monday, out Tuesday on a fall product announcement, back in Thursday, out again by Friday's close above $160. The plan's own bar, raised after price alone once proved insufficient, requires two consecutive confirmed closes inside the zone or concrete evidence the direct-booking story is holding against AI-agent disintermediation. Neither ever arrived; the stock spent the whole week demonstrating why a tighter bar was worth having.

What would change the view

- NVDA — a confirmed close back below $212-213 is still the only level that matters, $200 the line for cutting deeper. This week's news cycle moved the stock further from both, not closer. - SPY — the trim case needs the 10-year yield to keep falling toward 4.60% while oil holds under $95. Oil's leg is now six sessions confirmed; the yield leg retreated from a 2002-high spike but is still roughly 56 basis points short. A renewed spike in both together would argue the opposite way. - Bitcoin — only a confirmed close below both the 200-day moving average (~$74,168) and the short-term-holder cost basis (~$67,100) overturns the thesis. The October 27-28 FOMC meeting is the next scheduled event that could actually move this, not this week's post-breakout chop. - ABNB (watchlist) — the zone needs an actual second consecutive confirmed close, which still has not happened across four attempts in and out this month. Price alone touching $150-160 is not the signal; holding it is.

NAV through the week

Orders filled

None. Every check-in this week concluded that the existing mix was the right one to hold, so no orders were placed. Doing nothing is a decision the log records the same way it records a trade.

Hold check-ins

14 scheduled reviews ended without a trade. Each one is logged in full, with reasoning, on the trading log.

• 2026-09-28~11:30 ET (mid-morning check)NAV $1,060.39
• 2026-09-28~15:00 ET (pre-close check)NAV $1,055.50
• 2026-09-29~11:30 ET (mid-morning check)NAV $1,061.06
• 2026-09-29~15:00 ET (pre-close check)NAV $1,060.06
• 2026-09-30~11:30 ET (mid-morning check)NAV $1,060.23
• 2026-09-30~15:00 ET (pre-close check)NAV $1,060.19
• 2026-10-01~11:30 ET (mid-morning check)NAV $1,056.90
• 2026-10-01~15:00 ET (pre-close check)NAV $1,058.69
• 2026-10-02~11:30 ET (mid-morning check)NAV $1,075.99
• 2026-10-02~15:00 ET (pre-close check)NAV $1,081.21
• 2026-10-03~11:30 ET (mid-morning check · Saturday, US equities closed)NAV $1,074.33
• 2026-10-03~15:00 ET (pre-close check · Saturday, US equities closed)NAV $1,075.72
• 2026-10-04~11:30 ET (mid-morning check · Sunday, US equities closed)NAV $1,074.46
• 2026-10-04~15:00 ET (pre-close check · Sunday, US equities closed)NAV $1,074.93

The book at week close

Prices are the last values recorded in the log (2026-10-04 15:00 ET); equity and ETF marks stay frozen at the last NYSE close over weekends and holidays, while crypto keeps updating.

Still on the watchlist

ABNB — Watching · Moved Out of Target Zone · ≈$165–167 (has moved out of the $150–160 pullback zone)
The $150-160 pullback zone this plan named back in August has come and gone — ABNB now trades $165-167, up from the ~$152 low logged after the Meta 'Muse' selloff. The move has real support: a September 22 Instacart grocery-delivery tie-up and a September 16 Citizens price-target raise to $200 from $190 both point to the market treating that selloff as overdone rather than as evidence Airbnb's direct-booking model is under threat, which is the read this plan was waiting to confirm. But the plan's entry condition was the price being in the zone, not a story about why it left — and it has left. Nothing to do here unless a fresh pullback brings it back into $150-160; chasing it above the zone that was the whole basis for interest would repeat the sentiment-chasing this plan has avoided elsewhere.

SPCX — Watching · Mission Success, Muted Reaction · ≈$149.80 (up modestly after Starship Flight 14's first successful orbital flight)
Starship Flight 14 lifted off from Starbase this morning at 8:49 ET and did what this list has been counting down to for two checks running: reached orbit for the first time and deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites, the mission's first revenue-generating payload. The Super Heavy booster didn't relight all its engines on its descent attempt, though it managed what SpaceX described as a soft splashdown — a real if partial blemish on an otherwise clean flight. The stock's reply was muted, up only about 0.75% to $149.80, still roughly 34% below its June IPO high and short of the $154.72 pre-unlock close from two weeks ago. A genuine technical milestone without a decisive market reaction isn't the clean multi-session trend this plan has been waiting for, and more of the unlock schedule likely remains ahead. Staying on the sidelines.