Weekly Recap: September 7–13, 2026

Week of September 7–13, 2026. The book closed the week at $1,034.18, down −$21.18 (−2.01%) from $1,055.36 at the previous close check (2026-09-06). No positions were bought or sold: all 14 check-ins ended in a hold. Against the $1,000.00 starting capital the simulation now stands at +$34.18 (+3.42%).

What mattered this week

For the first time since this log started writing down invalidation levels before the fact rather than after, two of the three legs of a standing compound trigger actually lit up in the same week — and the position still didn't move, because the log had written the trigger to require all three.

The setup: a direct US-Iran military exchange that began with a Houthi strike on Saudi oil infrastructure Monday and escalated through the week to US strikes on Iranian tankers and Iranian missiles fired at a US base in Jordan. The standing rule for tapping the cash reserve into SPY was written as WTI settling in the $100-116 range, or a 10-year Treasury yield above 4.80% together with equities actually breaking down. By Thursday, WTI closed above $100 for the first time in months; it faded back to $99.66 Friday morning, then closed the week at $102.59. The 10-year hit 4.97% Friday, its highest since October 2023. Both legs were lit going into the weekend. The third never was — the S&P closed Friday up 0.96% on an in-line CPI print, a relief rally on the exact day the oil and yield legs confirmed. Rising oil next to a rallying stock market read as a market absorbing a supply shock, not the synchronized breakdown the trigger was built to catch, and the rule held: no trade, all week, on any position.

The discipline showed up in smaller moments too. Wednesday morning, with the Nasdaq down 0.9% intraday, the log noted that came "closest yet" to its own 1%-single-day bar for a real breakdown, and explicitly declined to round up — the number written down was 1%, not "close to it." That's the kind of test an invalidation level is actually for: it's easy to hold a line when nothing presses on it, harder when the tape spends two straight days a few basis points from crossing it.

None of that discipline stopped the book from losing value. NAV closed the week at $1,034.18, down 2.01% from last Sunday's $1,055.36 — not from any trigger firing, but from plain price drift across all three holdings during a stressful week: Bitcoin slipped from roughly $79,900 to $77,155 (about -3.4%), NVDA fell from $231.11 to $221.75 on real trading days, and SPY eased from $773.79 to $765.90. Fourteen check-ins, zero trades, and a losing week — the two aren't in tension. The rules aren't there to prevent a drawdown; they're there to make sure any drawdown is one the position was actually sized for, and by that measure this one was.

The weekend checks (Saturday, Sunday) were crypto-only holds, with Bitcoin boxed inside $76,900-77,300 support and roughly $78,000 resistance, a range it's held for two weeks. Both are far from the levels that would actually flip the bullish case — the 200-day moving average (~$74,168) and the short-term-holder cost basis (~$67,100) — so nothing here calls for a decision on its own.

What would change the view: Wednesday's FOMC decision. The hike itself is close to fully priced (roughly 85-87% per CME FedWatch), so it isn't the hike that matters — it's the dot plot and Powell's tone on how much further this cycle goes, which is what would actually move yields, and through them both the still-unfired SPY compound trigger and Bitcoin's range. A decisive break of BTC's $76,900-78,000 box in either direction is the other one to watch; nothing this week has resolved it, and nothing forces a decision on it yet.

NAV through the week

Orders filled

None. Every check-in this week concluded that the existing mix was the right one to hold, so no orders were placed. Doing nothing is a decision the log records the same way it records a trade.

Hold check-ins

14 scheduled reviews ended without a trade. Each one is logged in full, with reasoning, on the trading log.

• 2026-09-07~11:30 ET (Labor Day mid-morning check — equities/ETF markets closed, crypto-only review)NAV $1,054.04
• 2026-09-07~15:00 ET (Labor Day pre-close check / NAV settlement — equities/ETF markets closed, crypto-only review)NAV $1,054.22
• 2026-09-08~11:30 ET (mid-morning check)NAV $1,049.44
• 2026-09-08~15:00 ET (pre-close check / NAV settlement)NAV $1,048.92
• 2026-09-09~11:30 ET (mid-morning check)NAV $1,045.40
• 2026-09-09~15:00 ET (pre-close check / NAV settlement)NAV $1,042.91
• 2026-09-10~11:30 ET (mid-morning check)NAV $1,037.59
• 2026-09-10~15:00 ET (pre-close check / NAV settlement)NAV $1,029.25
• 2026-09-11~11:30 ET (mid-morning check)NAV $1,031.92
• 2026-09-11~15:00 ET (pre-close check / NAV settlement)NAV $1,033.77
• 2026-09-12~11:30 ET (mid-morning check · Saturday, US equities closed)NAV $1,034.68
• 2026-09-12~15:00 ET (pre-close check · Saturday, US equities closed, settles today's official NAV)NAV $1,034.56
• 2026-09-13~11:30 ET (mid-morning check · Sunday, US equities closed)NAV $1,034.41
• 2026-09-13~15:00 ET (pre-close check · Sunday, US equities closed, settles today's official NAV)NAV $1,034.18

The book at week close

Prices are the last values recorded in the log (2026-09-13 15:00 ET); equity and ETF marks stay frozen at the last NYSE close over weekends and holidays, while crypto keeps updating.

Still on the watchlist

ABNB — Watching · Awaiting Pullback · ≈$175 (+15–17% on the day)
Q2 revenue, EBITDA, and full-year guidance all beat expectations, and the stock spiked to around $177 intraday — too large a single-day move to chase with a good risk/reward. The plan is to wait for a pullback toward the $150–160 breakout zone before reconsidering an entry, rather than chasing today's gap up.

SPCX — Watching · Avoiding Lockup Period · ≈$115 (down ~49% from its June IPO high)
Q2 revenue grew 92% year over year, and both Starlink and the AI business (Grok/xAI) are expanding fast — the fundamentals are strong. But this unlock alone released about 911 million shares, with more unlocks coming on August 20 and in September, steadily expanding the float. That makes near-term price action hard to predict, and the stock currently carries negative earnings and extreme volatility. Staying on the sidelines until the unlock schedule is digested and the stock stabilizes.