Weekly Recap: August 31 – September 6, 2026

Week of August 31 – September 6, 2026. The book closed the week at $1,055.36, up +$18.08 (+1.74%) from $1,037.28 at the previous close check (2026-08-30). No positions were bought or sold: all 14 check-ins ended in a hold. Against the $1,000.00 starting capital the simulation now stands at +$55.36 (+5.54%).

What mattered this week

The week's dominant story for four straight days was a shooting war, and it turned out not to be the story that moved the book. The US and Iran traded strikes near the Strait of Hormuz starting Sunday night, escalating by Monday to tanker strikes and mined vessels, and by Tuesday to direct hits on IRGC targets with Iranian retaliation against US bases. Oil ran from the mid-$80s toward $95 Brent, and the 10-year Treasury yield spiked to its highest since January 2025 on a hawkish Fed. None of it crossed the lines drawn for it — WTI never got near the $100-116 zone set as the growth-scare threshold, the 10-year stayed under 4.80% — so cash sat out the entire episode, exactly as the standing invalidation levels said it should. A four-day war headline moved the tape every single check-in and moved the portfolio not at all.

What actually moved the NAV was two unrelated, company- and data-specific items landing mid-week. Nvidia's talks to buy Hugging Face for $12.9 billion leaked Tuesday afternoon and were confirmed by SEC filing Wednesday morning, pushing the stock through the $212-213 level that had been flagged as the line for further trimming — it never came close, running instead into the $224-231 range. Then Thursday's August jobs report printed +162,000 against a consensus near 53,000-55,000, the strongest beat since March and a direct rebuttal to July's -23,000 miss, the release that had started the growth-scare narrative in the first place. Between Tuesday morning and Thursday's close the NAV went from about $1,027 to $1,058 — most of the week's gain in three sessions, on news the geopolitical story never touched.

No trade was made all week — fourteen check-ins, all holds. That held up under real pressure, not just quiet drift: NVDA's weight against its cap, SPY's oil and yield triggers, and Bitcoin's invalidation levels were each checked against a genuinely eventful tape, and none moved enough to call for action. NVDA did drift higher on price alone, from about 25.4% of the book Sunday to roughly 26.5% by week's end — still well inside the 35% ceiling and not forcing a decision, but worth naming rather than letting "no room to add, no reason to sell" stand in for one.

Bitcoin is the one position with an open question heading into next week. It briefly cleared $82,000 mid-week before fading back to consolidate just under $80,000, where it has spent the last several sessions testing the level from below without resolving it. The log is treating $80,500-800 as the pivot: a decisive close above opens the way toward $83,000-84,000, while failure to hold sends it back toward $78,500. Neither the 200-day moving average (~$74,168) nor the short-term-holder cost basis (~$67,100) — the levels that would actually flip the bullish case — are anywhere close.

What would change the view next week: a hot September 11 CPI print that pushes September rate-hike odds (58-66% per CME FedWatch, up from a coin-flip mid-week) meaningfully higher; a decisive BTC close on either side of the $80,000 pivot; NVDA closing back below $212-213 once equity trading resumes Tuesday after the Labor Day holiday; or oil actually breaking toward the $100-116 zone rather than this week's stalled rally. None of those have happened yet — this week's real catalysts, an M&A deal and a jobs report, came from outside the framework the log had been watching, which is worth remembering going into a week that looks quieter on paper.

NAV through the week

Orders filled

None. Every check-in this week concluded that the existing mix was the right one to hold, so no orders were placed. Doing nothing is a decision the log records the same way it records a trade.

Hold check-ins

14 scheduled reviews ended without a trade. Each one is logged in full, with reasoning, on the trading log.

• 2026-08-31~11:30 ET (mid-morning check)NAV $1,033.23
• 2026-08-31~15:00 ET (pre-close check / NAV settlement)NAV $1,033.18
• 2026-09-01~11:30 ET (mid-morning check)NAV $1,027.51
• 2026-09-01~15:00 ET (pre-close check / NAV settlement)NAV $1,030.38
• 2026-09-02~11:30 ET (mid-morning check)NAV $1,027.19
• 2026-09-02~15:00 ET (pre-close check / NAV settlement)NAV $1,036.49
• 2026-09-03~11:30 ET (mid-morning check)NAV $1,044.75
• 2026-09-03~15:00 ET (pre-close check / NAV settlement)NAV $1,053.62
• 2026-09-04~11:30 ET (mid-morning check)NAV $1,053.72
• 2026-09-04~15:00 ET (pre-close check / NAV settlement)NAV $1,058.01
• 2026-09-05~11:30 ET (weekend check — equities/ETF markets closed, crypto-only review)NAV $1,054.57
• 2026-09-05~15:00 ET (Saturday pre-close check / NAV settlement — equities/ETF markets closed, crypto-only review)NAV $1,054.84
• 2026-09-06~11:30 ET (Sunday mid-morning check — equities/ETF markets closed, crypto-only review)NAV $1,055.23
• 2026-09-06~15:00 ET (Sunday pre-close check / NAV settlement — equities/ETF markets closed, crypto-only review)NAV $1,055.36

The book at week close

Prices are the last values recorded in the log (2026-09-06 15:00 ET); equity and ETF marks stay frozen at the last NYSE close over weekends and holidays, while crypto keeps updating.

Still on the watchlist

ABNB — Watching · Awaiting Pullback · ≈$175 (+15–17% on the day)
Q2 revenue, EBITDA, and full-year guidance all beat expectations, and the stock spiked to around $177 intraday — too large a single-day move to chase with a good risk/reward. The plan is to wait for a pullback toward the $150–160 breakout zone before reconsidering an entry, rather than chasing today's gap up.

SPCX — Watching · Avoiding Lockup Period · ≈$115 (down ~49% from its June IPO high)
Q2 revenue grew 92% year over year, and both Starlink and the AI business (Grok/xAI) are expanding fast — the fundamentals are strong. But this unlock alone released about 911 million shares, with more unlocks coming on August 20 and in September, steadily expanding the float. That makes near-term price action hard to predict, and the stock currently carries negative earnings and extreme volatility. Staying on the sidelines until the unlock schedule is digested and the stock stabilizes.