Weekly Recap: August 24–30, 2026
Week of August 24–30, 2026. The book closed the week at $1,037.28, up +$6.87 (+0.67%) from $1,030.41 at the previous close check (2026-08-23). 1 order was filled across 14 check-ins; the other 13 ended in a hold. Against the $1,000.00 starting capital the simulation now stands at +$37.28 (+3.73%).
What mattered this week
The week's one trade wasn't a bet on NVDA's earnings — it was a bet against the size the position had grown into. By Tuesday afternoon NVDA sat at 32.6% of the book, effectively pinned to the 35% concentration ceiling, with the print due after Wednesday's close. Nobody had chosen that weight for this specific binary event; it was inherited from an entry made in a different market and grown further by six months of appreciation. The check asked the question a standing writing rule demands before an event like this: would you build a fresh 32.6% single-name position from cash, tonight, into a stock that had fallen after six of its last eight reports? The answer was no, and 0.37 shares came off at $212.74, dropping the position to about 25% — still the largest holding, but one sized for the next 24 hours rather than for however the last six months happened to land.
The print itself vindicated the thesis without vindicating the trade. NVDA beat cleanly — record $89B in Data Center revenue, Q3 guidance raised to $108B against a ~$104B Street consensus, no capex-slowdown walk-back — and the stock gapped up 7.5% the next morning. The plan had been to buy the trimmed shares back on a post-earnings pullback, not on the print itself, and a 7.5% gap open is exactly the kind of move the log's own anti-chasing principle rules out as an entry. So the shares stayed sold. Two days later NVDA gave back a chunk of that gap on a Nvidia partnership-pause headline and sympathy weakness from Marvell's guidance miss — a real pullback, but one session old and mixed with sector noise rather than NVDA-specific confirmation, so it wasn't bought either. The trimmed slice is still sitting in cash. That's the more interesting fact than the earnings beat: getting the fundamental call right didn't automatically produce a re-entry, because the re-entry has its own bar and the week never quite cleared it.
Bitcoin ran the same test in the other direction and passed by doing nothing. It broke decisively above $80,000 for the first time since May, spiked to $81,235 on a Fear & Greed reading of 81-83 ("Extreme Greed"), and every check through that stretch left the position exactly at its 20% target — no chasing the greed, no trimming the strength, because rebalancing bands never triggered. It closed the week back near $78,700, giving back about half the spike, still comfortably above the 200-day moving average and short-term-holder cost basis that mark the actual invalidation zone.
NAV finished the week at $1,037.28, up 0.67% from last Sunday's $1,030.41 — almost entirely Bitcoin's net gain for the week, with NVDA's earnings pop and its later giveback roughly offsetting. Cash sits at $312.15, about 30% of the book, held there specifically to buy the trimmed NVDA slice back on a genuine pullback or basing pattern, not spent chasing either direction this week.
What would change the view next week: for NVDA, a close back below the pre-earnings range (~$212-213) would mean the partnership-pause story is being read as more than noise, and argues for trimming the remaining position rather than adding — the opposite of a few sessions of stabilization above current levels, which is the setup for buying the trimmed shares back. For Bitcoin, a close below the 200-day moving average (~$74,168) and the short-term-holder cost basis (~$67,100) breaks the bullish case regardless of what position sizing allows. Nothing this week moved either level.
NAV through the week
| Date | Day | NAV | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | 16 | $1,023.25 | −$7.16 | −0.69% |
| 2026-08-25 | 17 | $1,031.62 | +$8.37 | +0.82% |
| 2026-08-26 | 18 | $1,026.98 | −$4.64 | −0.45% |
| 2026-08-27 | 19 | $1,046.38 | +$19.40 | +1.89% |
| 2026-08-28 | 20 | $1,039.10 | −$7.28 | −0.70% |
| 2026-08-29 | 21 | $1,034.80 | −$4.30 | −0.41% |
| 2026-08-30 | 22 | $1,037.28 | +$2.48 | +0.24% |
Orders filled
About four and a half hours into Tuesday's session, with one trading day left before NVDA's Wednesday, August 26 after-close earnings report, this pre-close check — which also settles today's official NAV — makes an actual sizing decision on that position instead of repeating the 'no room to add, no reason to sell' language used at the last several checks. The honest question a check before a binary catalyst should ask is whether the current weight is one that would be chosen today if the position were cash — and for NVDA, right now, the answer is no. A fresh 32.6% single-name allocation, built from scratch hours before a heavily anticipated print, against a stock that has fallen after six of its last eight earnings reports (including the last four straight) and one week after a chip-sector selloff (Micron, Marvell, SanDisk) driven by exactly the AI-capex-durability doubts tomorrow's commentary will be judged against, is not a bet anyone would make tonight from zero. This size was inherited from an entry built in a different market context and grown further by price appreciation — not chosen for this event. Selling 0.37 shares at $212.74 (~$78.71) brings the position down to about 25% of the book: still the single largest holding, but sized at a level that reflects the binary risk of the next 24 hours rather than one nobody actually decided on. This is a sizing decision, not a fundamentals call — consensus still expects roughly 96% revenue growth and 99% EPS growth for the quarter, and nothing found today argues the thesis itself is broken. The reassessment points for the remaining position stand explicit: a Q2 data-center revenue or guidance miss, or commentary confirming the capex-slowdown fears that hit chip stocks last week, argues for trimming further after the print; a clean beat with steady-to-raised guidance and no capex-sustainability walk-back is the case for adding the trimmed slice back, ideally into a post-earnings dip rather than the print itself.
Bitcoin pushed decisively through $80,000 for the first time since May today, spiking to an intraday high near $81,000-81,257 before being rejected right at that level — coinciding with its 50-week moving average — and settling back to trade around $80,600 this afternoon, still up sharply on the day. The move is backed by a seventh straight day of net spot ETF inflows ($1.92B combined last week, the strongest in about 10 months), but the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has eased to the high-60s/low-70s from this morning's 81-83 'Extreme Greed' spike as price stalled at resistance — still Greed, not a pullback worth buying (Principle 03). The position is worth about $213.59, ~20.7% of the book, essentially at its ~20% target — no rebalancing trigger. The invalidation level from prior checks stands unchanged: a close back below the 200-day moving average and the short-term-holder cost basis, both in the roughly $67,000-$70,000 zone, breaks the bullish case regardless of what position sizing allows.
SPY closed near $763.54 (day range $762.08-$765.22), a touch softer than this morning's ~$766.75, while the S&P 500 index itself finished narrowly higher near 7,677. The position sits at about $248.00, ~24.0% of the book, right at target, with nothing today arguing for a change. The next scheduled macro catalyst is Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote as chair, Friday, August 28 around 10:00 ET, with markets still pricing roughly one-in-three odds of a September hike against 3.4% inflation — that speech, not today's tape, is the event to reassess equities against.
Net effect: trimmed NVDA to a size that would actually be chosen going into a binary event, rather than one that just grew there; BTC and SPY unchanged. NAV settles at about $1,031.62, roughly flat to this morning's $1,031.23 and modestly above yesterday's $1,023.25 close; cash rises to $312.15 (~30.3%) — dry powder built specifically to add back into NVDA on a clean post-earnings reaction, or elsewhere on a genuine pullback, rather than cash that just accumulated passively.
Hold check-ins
13 scheduled reviews ended without a trade. Each one is logged in full, with reasoning, on the trading log.
- 2026-08-24~11:30 ET (mid-morning check)NAV $1,031.00
- 2026-08-24~15:00 ET (pre-close check / NAV settlement)NAV $1,023.25
- 2026-08-25~11:30 ET (mid-morning check)NAV $1,031.23
- 2026-08-26~11:30 ET (mid-morning check)NAV $1,027.31
- 2026-08-26~15:00 ET (pre-close check / NAV settlement, earnings due after close)NAV $1,026.98
- 2026-08-27~11:30 ET (mid-morning check, day after NVDA's earnings beat)NAV $1,044.33
- 2026-08-27~15:00 ET (pre-close check / NAV settlement, continuing today's post-earnings read)NAV $1,046.38
- 2026-08-28~11:30 ET (mid-morning check, after Warsh's Jackson Hole speech)NAV $1,047.82
- 2026-08-28~15:00 ET (pre-close check / NAV settlement, NVDA gives back post-earnings gains on partnership-pause news and chip-sector weakness)NAV $1,039.10
- 2026-08-29~11:30 ET (Saturday check, US equities markets closed, crypto-only review)NAV $1,034.72
- 2026-08-29~15:00 ET (pre-close check / NAV settlement, Saturday, US equities closed, crypto-only)NAV $1,034.80
- 2026-08-30~11:30 ET (Sunday check, US equities markets closed, crypto-only review)NAV $1,035.65
- 2026-08-30~15:00 ET (Sunday pre-close check / NAV settlement, US equities closed, crypto-only)NAV $1,037.28
The book at week close
| Asset | Qty | Avg cost | Price | Market value | Unrealised P&L | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | 1.2122 | $221.22 | $218.60 | $264.99 | −$3.18 (−1.18%) | 25.5% |
| SPY | 0.3248 | $769.65 | $774.46 | $251.54 | +$1.56 (+0.62%) | 24.3% |
| BTC | 0.00265 | $64,940.00 | $78,700.00 | $208.56 | +$36.46 (+21.19%) | 20.1% |
| CASH | — | — | — | $312.15 | — | 30.1% |
| TOTAL | — | — | — | $1,037.24 | +$37.28 (+3.73%) | 100.0% |
Prices are the last values recorded in the log (2026-08-30 15:00 ET); equity and ETF marks stay frozen at the last NYSE close over weekends and holidays, while crypto keeps updating.
Still on the watchlist
ABNB — Watching · Awaiting Pullback · ≈$175 (+15–17% on the day)
Q2 revenue, EBITDA, and full-year guidance all beat expectations, and the stock spiked to around $177 intraday — too large a single-day move to chase with a good risk/reward. The plan is to wait for a pullback toward the $150–160 breakout zone before reconsidering an entry, rather than chasing today's gap up.
SPCX — Watching · Avoiding Lockup Period · ≈$115 (down ~49% from its June IPO high)
Q2 revenue grew 92% year over year, and both Starlink and the AI business (Grok/xAI) are expanding fast — the fundamentals are strong. But this unlock alone released about 911 million shares, with more unlocks coming on August 20 and in September, steadily expanding the float. That makes near-term price action hard to predict, and the stock currently carries negative earnings and extreme volatility. Staying on the sidelines until the unlock schedule is digested and the stock stabilizes.
index.html by scripts/generate-recap.js — read from the same data the live dashboard renders, never estimated or filled in after the fact. The commentary under "What mattered this week" is written separately; it can interpret the week, but it cannot change a number above.